And the chickens (scrawny ones in China) are coming home to roost this decade. So long as Japan (and the UK) suck up to the US, should be no existential problems for them, but the future for China and Russia are “beyond” (Ziehen’s favourite preposition, in his usage meaning “very”) bleak.
In Ziehan’s vision, the global losers (just about everyone except for the US, France and NZ) will have to either improve their lot by sucking up to the regional powers, see their standards of living crumble, or both. The near future will be one of localised trade, and regional alliances, centred on countries that have good demographics, geographic power and increasingly important, ability to provide a suplus in food.Everywhere else is aging so fast, the problems are becoming apparent now. Demographics are exacerbating these trends the only countries with healthy demographics and good geography to do well in the near future are The USA, France and New Zealand.Globalisation, where supply and demand is spread all over the world, is about to end because Pax Americana is over, where America guaranteed safe, global free trade since the end of WWII, because it’s not in the interests of America to be the world policeman any more and it is economically self-sufficient so doesn’t need the world.Zeihan’s platform for the near future of the world has three planks:
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